Line of multiple Tesla Cybertrucks at Tesla Motors dealership in Colma, California, December 6, ... [+]
Tesla Cybertruck demand is slipping, as Morgan Stanley noted on Friday. That will eventually push Tesla to price-adjust the electric pick-up, much like it has done with other vehicles.
As groundbreaking a design as the Cybertruck is (as fans of the Cybertruck constantly remind us) its novelty isn’t what it was a year ago when sales first kicked off. That, among other things, is having an impact on sales.
In a research note on Friday, Morgan Stanley cited “decelerating Cybertruck volumes” as a reason for expectations of lower 2025 Tesla volume growth. “We believe buy-side expectations on FY25 volume growth are closer to 10% than 20% given pressures on the EV market,” Morgan Stanley added in the note ahead of Tesla fourth quarter results.
“Trump 2.0 opposition to EV incentives have hit FY25 volume expectations. We believe buy-side expectations on FY25 volume growth are closer to 10% than 20% given pressures on the EV market, China competition, decelerating Cybertruck volumes and expectations of eliminated/repealed EV tax incentives.” — Morgan Stanley, Friday, January 24, 2025
While the Cybertruck was the No. 5 best selling EV in the U.S. in 2024, it didn’t take huge sales volumes to get there. The CT racked up sales just shy of 39,000 units in 2024, beating the perennial best selling electric pickup, the Ford F-150 Lightning, according to Cox Automotive.
The AWD Cybertruck starts at $79,990 without the federal tax incentive and $72,490 with the $7,500 incentive (before taxes and fees). The Cyberbeast starts at $99,990 without the incentive and $92,490 with the incentive (before taxes and fees). The problem is that Tesla’s newest car is also one of its most expensive, making it just one more pricey EV that most car buyers can’t afford. Worse, EVs stand to get even more expensive if the Trump administration eliminates the federal tax credit for purchases and/or leases, possibly further dampening sales.
Expect a cheaper version, inventory deals, or even a price cut in 2025 — possible scenarios include:
- A straight price cut: This happens occasionally but it is not common. Though it could become necessary if demand takes a dive in 2025.
- APR financing: Tesla more typically cuts the APR financing rates. This is typically short-lived.
- Inventory deals: offering inventory discounts is an ongoing strategy for Tesla. That happens for just about every Tesla vehicle. These deals could increase if inventory starts to pile up.
- Lease deals: lower monthly lease payments is a more recent tactic by Tesla. CEO Elon Musk has emphasized in earning calls that the monthly payment is the most critical metric for buyers. Currently, the AWD Cybertruck shows a lease payment of $899/month with $7,500 down and 10,000 miles/year.
- Cheaper RWD version: Last year Tesla showed a Rear-Wheel Drive Cybertruck on the order page, then took it down. That was priced at $60,990. Will that return in 2025?
