Donald Trump
The political leader most likely to undermine the second Trump administration is Donald Trump himself. His role as a candidate, including his stagecraft, rhetoric, and theatrics is often at variance with, or even harmful to, the role he must play to be a successful president.
Indeed, the very success he has achieved as a candidate might have taught him the wrong lessons, reflected recently in his multiple interventions in the Congressional budget debate and in his calls to annex Greenland and the Panama Canal. But Trump's challenges are broader than the need to develop better tactical skills with Congress or diplomatic rapport with Denmark.
As Trump attempts to come to terms with the transition from campaign mode to serving in government, three areas of tension stand out:
Grandiosity vs. Incrementalism
Campaigns require a grand vision, and if you add to that Trump’s natural penchant for shock value, you tend to get a lot of absolutist statements (the “greatest” this; the “worst” that) and categorical promises (“end the war day one”). But government – and human behavior – moves more slowly.
Trump needs to come to terms with the gap between his campaign statements and what he can practically achieve in government. For example, shrinking the size and scope of government is a goal which could help the country, but reducing or trimming government programs for almost any constituency would be fraught with hostility and political costs. And when the programs are mass-based, such as Medicare or Social Security, the ability to reduce or reform can carry a steep cost. Reforms tend to happen when the benefits are front-loaded and the costs are at the end, but most of what Trump is looking at involves immediate, if modest, pain, with only long-dated benefits of fiscal probity, abstract to most beneficiaries.
So the government goal of grappling with the budget might best be served by incrementalism - keeping growth flat, or lower than inflation, for a few years, combined with some select trimming, making the plans more likely to be acceptable to the general public and the Congress.
Audacity vs. Reassurance
Second, throughout the campaign, Trump was a master of audacity: always dominating the news and inspiring his base through brazen statements and accusations. It did not matter so much if immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating cats and dogs; what mattered was that it captured headlines. But as President, Trump can command an audience without the theatrics.
A chronic, frenzied approach to issues might hurt him more than it helps as it makes his credibility the issue. If Trump is serious about navigating the ship of state, he no longer needs to complain about an outrageous misdeed, real or imagined. He needs to reassure voters that he is capable of taking the nation ahead in a methodical, goal-oriented fashion.
Prioritization vs. Smorgasbord
Finally, much of Trump's presidency seems committed to policy goals that enjoy broad policy support, such as border controls and economic growth. He also enjoys support or at least respect for a willingness to take a contrarian view toward government programs and appoint disruptors such as Elon Musk to senior advisory roles.
But Trump seems almost as equally committed to undermining his presidency through a combination of tactical and policy missteps: Appointing candidates to high office who are brazenly unqualified (Gaetz) or espouse exotic policies (Gabbard and Kennedy). (Arguably, both Gabbard and Kennedy have qualification issues as well).
Beyond personnel issues, Trump also pursues policies that have limited support, or are outright controversial, such as mass deportations, blanket pardons for January 6 convicts, higher tariffs, and (surprising this needs to be said) national territorial expansion.
Simply put, Trump needs to focus on a handful of more popular issues for his first few months to establish a pattern of success, then he can move to his secondary issues.
With majorities in the House and Senate, Trump has strong prospects for a successful presidency. But President Trump can be successful only if he can move away from candidate Trump.
