BYD Dolphin (Photo by Muhammed Enes Yildirim/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The world’s-leading electric vehicle maker BYD is cranking up sales in Europe with the Dolphin, but as the rollout of this little hatchback from China gathers momentum evidence suggests local manufacturers need not be too worried.
For sure the challenge is massive and impressive. China has invested billions of dollars in creating an automotive giant to challenge traditional leaders in the U.S., Japan and Europe. Its EV makers are said to have a 30% cost advantage. The supply of many crucial minerals is currently monopolized by China.
There is an array of Chinese automakers already winning sales in Europe currently led by SAIC’s MG, and including Geely’s Polestar, Smart and Zeekr brands, Xpeng, and Great Wall Motors’ ORA. BYD is likely to be the most important new entrant, particularly when its factory in Hungary begins production later this year. Another plant is planned for Turkey. This output will avoid the big tariffs imposed by the European Union on Chinese EVs, and the regular 10% import tariff. BYD is likely to be the biggest Chinese presence and it has premium brands to follow like the Yangwang with its big SUVs and supercars, and the Denza Z9 GT.
The first BYD EVs to go on sale in Europe, the Atto3 compact SUV, the Seal upmarket fastback sedan and now the cheaper Dolphin are wowing buyers with their terrific quality, style, acceleration and competitive prices. But all display weak high-speed cruising ability on autoroutes.
Europe has an extensive autoroute network where the speed limit is just over 80 mph. High, sustained legal speeds are important. In Germany, some sections of autoroutes have no speed limit. Current EV technology performs well at speeds of up to 55 mph, but much higher than that range evaporates quickly. The Tesla Model 3, at close to 200 miles, has more than twice the range on autoroutes of these BYDs, but a conventional cheap diesel could probably double that.
The BYD Owners section on Facebook is full of frustrated new BYD Dolphin owners bemused by their clunky computers, which promise a lot but mask many basic functions. The dealer operation needs to step in quickly and fix this.
Matthias Schmidt, founder of Schmidt Automotive Research, said BYD’s plans for Germany have stumbled as EV sales slumped after government incentives were removed. Sales in the U.K. are taking the strain. The U.K. hasn’t yet adopted the EU’s EV tariff plan and is now the leading market in Europe for EVs.
Despite a slow start, BYD has climbed to the top of the Chinese sales ratings.
“BYD has been the number one Chinese brand, with EVs delivered across Western Europe for the past two months surpassing MG during October and November, but we remain disappointed by their market roll-out pace. Just 40,000 models delivered across Western Europe during the opening 11 months of the year, giving it less than 0.5% of the total new car market,” Schmidt said in an email.
Jamel Taganza, vice-president of French automotive consultancy Inovev, said despite the slow start, BYD has a long-term approach to developing the European market.
“The objective of BYD is clearly to dominate by volume in Europe, and that means addressing the mass market,” Taganza said.
BYD Yangwang U9 electric vehicle (Photo by ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP via Getty Images)
Currently, EV sales in Europe are being held back by the absence of a truly affordable small car. The cheapest EV’s cost around €15,000 ($15,600), but most sales begin closer to €30,000 ($31,200). In China BYD has the Seagull, a basic small car which sells for well under €10,000 ($10,400 after tax). Europeans have ignored this basement area of the market. Industry experts suggest BYD’s factories in Hungary and Turkey might produce the Dolphin Mini, a European version of the Seagull. That might well light a fire under European demand for EVs and seriously embarrass European manufacturers.
“In the coming 2-3 years, we can expect that the ATTO3 and the Dolphin will still be the two best-selling vehicles. After that, but more long-term, maybe the Seagull will be in the top three. However it will strongly depend on the overall market shift to EVs in Europe, which depends not only on the offer of car makers but also on the charging infrastructure,” Taganza said in an email exchange.
BYD has recently launched the ATTO2 in Europe.
There is an elephant in the room threatening BYD and Chinese EV plans in Europe, and it is geopolitical, not economic.
BYD Denza Z9 GT electric vehicle Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
Chinese EV industry expert Michael Dunne, in a Dunne Insights article headlined “BYD: So Damn Good – But Not Invincible” tracks its rapid development with sales up 10 times since 2020 from 400,000 to more than 4 million in 2024 including hybrids. BYD wants to export 800,000 cars this year, up from 400,000 in 2024.
Despite this success, Dunne says legendary investor Warren Buffet chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway has been slowly selling off shares in BYD and now holds less than 5 %. Dunne also said Buffet sold all his shares in TSMC of Taiwan the world’s largest and most profitable chip maker. Dunne quotes Buffet explaining why, saying “I don’t like the location”.
That does beg the question, often ignored by those saying the Chinese economic onslaught of the European auto industry is unstoppable. China is said to harbor designs on Taiwan. What happens to its global economic plans if it puts that into action?
The reaction by the West to an invasion would surely be dramatic and might well bring to an end China’s incredible success story in its export markets. That suggests China action over Taiwan is unlikely.
BYD Dolphin Comfort
Electric motor – 201 hp
Battery – 60.4 kWh LFP
Torque – 310 Nm
Claimed range – 267 miles (WLTP)
WintonsWorld test range – average 253 miles (5 charges)
Battery shortfall – 5.2%
Highway cruising penalty – 64.2%
Highway cruising range – 90.6 miles
Drive – front wheels
Acceleration – 0 to 60 mph – 6.6 seconds
Top speed – 100 mph
Price – £30,000 ($37,000 after tax)
